Updated: December 11, 2024
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Research and brokerage firm Bernstein recently released a note specifying and maintaining its bullish outlook for Bitcoin despite the recent slowdown in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows.
In a note to clients on Monday, Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra described the trend as a “short-term pause” and maintained their $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2025.
The analysts attribute the slowing ETF flows to the “halving” catalyst and successful ETF launch, which pulled forward Bitcoin’s year-to-date returns to 46%.
However, they expect the slowdown to be temporary, believing that ETFs will become more integrated with private bank platforms, wealth advisors, and brokerage platforms over time.
Chhugani and Sapra cited the $12 billion of spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows to date and the healthy position of leading Bitcoin miners post-halving as factors supporting their $150,000 price target.
The analysts noted that Bitcoin has been trading in the $62,000 to $72,000 range since late February, with no clear momentum on either side. They remain unfazed by the slowdown and reiterate their expectation that the total crypto market cap will triple to $7.5 trillion over the next 18 to 24 months.
Image source: Bernstein Research
Regarding Ethereum, the analysts suggested that potential denials of spot Ethereum ETFs by the SEC could be bullish for ether.
Bernstein analysts believe that any denial based on the grounds of unreliable correlation between spot and futures markets would likely be disproved in court, similar to the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF case.
Alternatively, if the SEC denies on the basis of ether being a security, it would create an awkward situation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which already trades ether futures without any securities implications.
The analysts see ether staking via Lido as a high-beta opportunity and expect the potential launch of the Eigen token to further incentivize and accelerate the adoption of the crypto niche.
Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, the Bernstein analysts highlighted several other crypto niches and projects with significant growth potential, including Solana’s growing dominance in crypto payments, Uniswap, GMX, and Synthetix as the best DeFi sector proxies; the Ronin blockchain as a crypto gaming proxy, and Chainlink’s data oracle and tokenization platform as a key part of the growing real-world asset market infrastructure.
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