Updated: December 4, 2024
Key Takeaways
Trump’s comments on Taiwan’s financial obligations to the US caused semiconductor stock instability.
Biden’s endorsement of Harris has introduced new variables into the crypto market’s behavior.
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Recent trading data analyzed by QCP Capital indicates Bitcoin may be primed for a major price rally ahead of the upcoming US presidential elections, with options traders betting on potential upside.
According QCP Capital, the US election “continues to drive volatility” in risk assets, a trend that started with Trump’s assassination attempt, coupled with the former president’s statements that Taiwan should pay the US for its protection. These statements triggered volatility in the semiconductor equities sector, amid ongoing tensions with China.
For crypto, Biden’s recent decision to step down and endorse Kamala Harris caused “erratic crypto movements,” QCP notes. Hours after the decision, Bitcoin was “gapping down over 1000 points” before retaining $68K, the analysis shows.
Over the past week, fluctuating between $61,000 and $67,000 despite uncertainties surrounding Mt. Gox repayments. QCP Capital analysts note this price action suggests the market has largely shaken off recent concerns.
The perpetual funding rate has returned to a neutral position, indicating balanced sentiment among traders. In the short term, QCP Capital expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $61,000 and $67,000, with significant long positions held at the July 26 $67,000 strike price.
Institutional interest in December $100,000 call options has remained steady, reflecting growing confidence in a potential year-end rally. This aligns with increased odds of a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming elections, as the former president has recently expressed support for crypto.
QCP Capital reports a surge in options market volatility, with out-of-the-money option prices rising significantly in the past 24 hours.
This indicates expectations for more extreme market movements in the near future. The firm continues to favor trades with upside potential, offering a “BTC ETF Win-Range” trade with 5x returns if Bitcoin settles between $90,000 and $110,000 by December 27.
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